Thursday 16 April 2020

First the Crisis, then stabilization. Now onto the difficult phase, recovery. Are we there yet?

The global pandemic known as COVID-19 has spread throughout the world and impacted each continent at different intervals and velocity of transmission. It has brought with it, uncertain economic uncertainty and chain reactions that many government leaders are beginning to recognize as difficult to deal with. Some nations as of this writing are at the beginning of the pandemic (India) while others have decided to take a very low profile approach (Sweden) and escalate only as necessary. Epidemiologists have been thrust into the media spotlight, which for many is not where they want to be. They prefer their focus remain on tackling the virus itself, not attend press conferences that have critical eyes and ears looking for an opening to ask questions that many journalists do not even know what they are asking that enables several different conspiracy theories to run rampant. One example is the widespread distribution on the internet that is fueling anti-vaxxer followers to gain traction where none actually exists.

Experienced Crisis and Disaster management teams knew this scenario would unfold on a grand scale spanning different cultures, political systems, religions and doctrine. Pandemic simulation exercises have been run since the beginning of the 21st century. The initial scenarios and results were not frightening to analyze because most believed solutions could be found to the weaknesses discovered. But as technology and virology assessment tools improved, so has the accuracy of simulations how a pandemic would spread. Simulation analytical programs and scenario planning improved dramatically after several pandemics swept across the world between 2000 and 2016. As disaster management and medical knowledge improved, simulation accuracy and outcomes came into focus with sobering outcomes and conclusions.

From a scientific perspective, it has become clear that preparedness and early decision making, are critical to any outcome. But none of the scenarios or models could predict a critical element; political acceptance and initiative to follow  recommendations or expert consensus. Some governments have followed recommended guidelines while others have not. Crisis managers and academic circles will publish hundreds of reports analyzing the consequences as the crisis subsides.

All three phases of this pandemic have struggled with the scientific - political equation. No one region has got it completely right or wrong. To err is to be human. This is only portion of the explanation that reflects our current environment that we are all now facing.

Listed at the bottom of this blog, are links to regular updates by scientific institutions, and government health organizations from all over the world. By no means is the list complete. Post a comment with a link to any government health organization that uses RSS and we will add them to our list. These feeds are regularly updated using RSS code, that allows a user to be informed with updated information from various sources. We have collected RSS feeds relevant to the Coronavirus pandemic wherever possible. Over the coming weeks we will also begin to collect scientific papers and make them available using our file server as a central repository for analysis and public distribution.

No one single protocol is going to stop COVID19 from spreading person to person. It’s a combination of steps that includes simply following the standard protocol for COVID19 protection, then you and your family will be fine and in the process, allow doctors and nurses to take care of those infected.
  • Wash your hands after touching any unknown surfaces such as door handles, knobs, counter-tops, glass windows, etc. Above all, do not touch your face when you come into contact with these surfaces. Once you wash and dry your hands, then proceed to thoroughly wash your face and dry, then repeat washing your hands again.
  • When you go shopping, wash your hands for 20 seconds or use a alcohol based hand gel cleaner after every trip. Then wipe down exterior wrapping of products you buy when you get home. Then wash your hands again, all the while, avoid touching your face.
  • Do not go out of you have a pre-existing condition or over the age of 60.
  • If required to work in close proximity to others, wear approved N-95 respirator mask, to reduce your exposure risk to the virus. Know how to put on, use and dispose of the respirator properly or its effectiveness will be eliminated.
  • Adhere to social distancing of 6 feet or greater. Stay away from people who do not adhere to social distance requirements.
  • Stay away from work if required to be within 6′ of a coworker.
  • Avoid buses, airliners and cruise ships, shopping malls, movie theatres, theme parks, etc.
  • Do not attend gatherings of more than 5 people. Especially if you do not know them.
  • Do not flush sanitary products, masks or gloves down your toilet, they will clog your cities sewage system!
  • Stay safe and stay at home to protect yourself and your family by following all local, state and federal health orders. 

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