On January 21st, 2020, the first documented case of COVID-19, was detected and quarantined in the United States. This is to say, the first, which had clear signs of fever, cough and temperature and admitted into hospital. This does not include any potential nationals or tourists that could have been asymptomatic.
The Center for Disease Control notified all integrated departments including the Secretary of Health & Human Services. Ground zero identified host is #1 on this date who was returning from Wuhan to Washington State.
Now 2 months and 3 weeks later, the U.S. has 189,624 confirmed cases and an undetermined number of asymptomatic citizens in the country. That's 81 days going from 1 to 189,624. Out of that total, 7,136 have recovered and 4,080 have died. Over 160,000 are in home isolation that is NOT being monitored. Nor does anyone know how well those in quarantine are taking care not to spread the virus outside of their residence.
Over 75% of the 189,000, are community transmitted cases and are patients that never left the United States. Canadian statistics of those infected abroad compared to those that are local transmission, is largely unknown because like the U.S., we have not aggressively implemented a tracing protocol until March 1st, 2020 and only then, it was targeted in the greater Vancouver region. By March 15th, Ontario began to to regionally trace where fatalities occurred at elderly care centers. By this point, the outer circle of the patients contacts reaches 3 layers beyond the index / host infection.
This is why the three main North American areas of focus, New York State, California and Ontario are at significant risk over the next 90 days, not 15 to 30 days, the next 90, which will allow virologists to analyze if the flattening, peak and consistent reduction in cases to zero can be achieved by Summer. If we do not take social distancing seriously around the world, we are in for a very long long year that could see catastrophic consequences in terms of life and economic stability.
The main reason is the cross-state and inter-province cooperation to maintain isolation and quarantine protocols (stay at home, etc) have to work together or we will be seeing a second round from Quebec, Alberta, New Jersey, Michigan, Florida and Louisiana. All it took was 1 official case and approximately 5,000 undocumented (asymptomatic) passengers coming from Wuhan, Hong Kong, United Kingdom, Italy and Spain to hit 200,000 people in 81 days across Canada and the U.S.
Because the infection rate is literally double the rate of Influenza - per day, it is expected there will be over 10,000,000 infected across North America over the next 30 days if we cannot halt community transmission. Based on what we know, 3% of those could potentially die and why the President of the U.S. has finally admitted his country could see up to 200,000 - 300,000 fatalities by the end of June. Recovery can vary between 2 weeks and 2 months depending on health of the patient before they contracted COVID-19.
It's time the President and the Prime Minister seriously consider in the next 96 hours, if a meeting of all Premiers and State Governors should be convened (on the phone) to shut down both nations across the board for 14 to 21 days except for REAL essential services (food only retailers, fuel, public safety and healthcare) and wait it out. Shut down all domestic airlines, bus transportation, passenger rail with only food production, distribution and strategic healthcare suppliers and warehouses operating. Shut down all other retail services including automotive, multi-service retailers, all non-essential manufacturing and services. Only municipal engineering services for waste and utilities should remain open. All construction, infrastructure maintenance and inspections should be halted.
If necessary, continue shut down until there are no new infections for a period of 7 days. If you think this is bad, The UK and the EU are on the brink of the same decision. Australia could explode with infections if they do not close the door like New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and Japan have.
Italy is about to find out over the next week if their have turned the tied and can see light at the end of the tunnel. They continue to have pockets of people trying to avoid the lockdown and as a result, Southern Italy has seen a significant surge in patients admitted with the virus. But over the past 3 days, they have clamped down aggressively on ALL movement throughout the country. And lets hope Africa and South America can keep the number of cases it has, to the bare minimum (every country has been infected) - and yes, we will all need to help fund the recovery there because if we don't, then the entire world is going to be in serious (really serious) danger not seen since the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.
#StaySafe #StayatHome - please. For all of us. Because if you don't, then what I've just described is probably what will be required and then we really will go bat shit crazy at home, as we watch the economy and small business completely collapse, with no chance of recovery for two years instead of 6 to 9 months with many the countries carrying trillions of dollars in extra debt.
- Wash your hands after touching any unknown surface.
- When you go shopping, wash your hands or use a alcohol based hand gel cleaner. Then wipe down exterior wrapping of products you buy when you get home. Then wash your hands again, all the while, avoid touching your face.
- Do not go out of you have a pre-existing condition or over the age of 70.
- Adhere to social distancing of 6 feet or greater. Stay away from people who do not adhere to social distance requirements.
- Stay away from work if required to be within 6′ of a coworker.
- Avoid buses, airliners and cruise ships, shopping malls, movie theatres, theme parks, etc. If you absolutely must use densely used public transit, wear a N95 mask if you are in close quarters of less than 6' and wear disposable gloves because it is likely you will have to touch safety hand railings. Safely dispose of once at destination and wash your hands, then dry. Then wash your face and then dry. Continue to wash your hands frequently and continue to avoid touching your face.
- Do not attend gatherings of more than 2 - 5 people. Especially if you do not know them.
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| Source: Financial Times UK March 25, 2020 |
Links to official government resources and global Coronavirus Covid-19 / 2019-nCoV statistics
